City Problems vs Jungle Problems
From Strategic Complexity by Ace Eddleman
City problems and jungle problems are the two environments I use to frame the plans-vs-heuristics dilemma. City problems are legible and predictable enough for detailed plans. Jungle problems have no reliable map, so you navigate them with heuristics: short-term decisions, constant observation and steady adjustment.
The city
A city is a domain of order. Streets, signs and traffic lights make it legible, and a tool like Google Maps can predict your travel time with reasonable accuracy. Navigation is algorithmic. Learn New York’s grid and getting somewhere is a matter of matching streets to avenues. Erratic drivers and road work complicate the trip, but the route itself is solved.
The jungle
Now picture yourself as the lone survivor of a plane crash in a dense jungle. No paths, no signs, no structure. Say you find a map in the wreckage but can’t tell what it’s a map of. Your best move is to throw it away, since following it could send you deeper in.
Sampling works better: walk for a while, stop, gather data about your surroundings, decide what to do next. As you move and learn, simple rules emerge (“keep the river on your left”). There are no guarantees. This adaptive approach still beats rigid, city-style navigation by a wide margin.
The real mistake
Most people bring city solutions to jungle problems. They build detailed plans for environments that change faster than any plan can track, then wonder why the plan fails on contact. In a jungle, the best plan is the one that evolves with the environment: some randomness, a willingness to explore, and openness to changing direction when new information arrives.
The opposite mistake exists too. Algorithmic solutions are real, and when you’re actually in a city, use them. Adaptation is a good default, but don’t reinvent the wheel unless that’s what you want to do. The core skill is recognizing which environment you’re standing in.
Common questions
What is the difference between a plan and a heuristic?
A plan lays out the steps ahead of time and works when the environment is predictable, like navigating a city. A heuristic is a rule of thumb refined through action and feedback, which works when the environment is unpredictable, like surviving a jungle.
Does this mean you should never make plans?
Plans are the right tool for city problems, where the environment is stable and legible. The danger is using them on jungle problems, where they create false confidence and can lead you deeper into trouble.