Evolution vs Development

How much of your problem represents stable phenomena, and how much of it is random?

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The dilemma of discerning between previously solved problems and novel challenges is crucial in understanding and addressing complex issues. This distinction closely aligns with the concepts explored in the field of evolutionary developmental biology (evo-devo), which examines the interplay between the predictable aspects of development and the unpredictable nature of evolutionary processes.

Evo-devo provides a framework for understanding how stable, developmental processes are influenced by, and coexist with, the inherent unpredictability of evolution. This can be useful when solving problems, as you can identify which parts of a problem are stable and within your control, and which parts random and/or intractable.

The Lifecycle of a Fetus

Consider the lifecycle of a human fetus, a well-documented developmental process with a high degree of predictability.

Medical science outlines a series of developmental milestones within the womb, like a heartbeat at six weeks and a gestation period of approximately nine months. These predictable elements represent the developmental aspect, akin to the invariant features of a problem that have known solutions or pathways.

However, alongside this predictability, there's a layer of unpredictability imbued by evolutionary processes. Each new human being is a unique combination of genes from their parents, introducing a degree of randomness.

Genetic mixing can lead to unpredictable outcomes like variations in facial features or the potential for physical or mental disorders. These aspects are less about the developmental process itself and more about the evolutionary influences that shape the final outcome.

Applications for Problem Solving

In problem-solving, this evo-devo perspective encourages you to differentiate between the developmental (predictable) and evolutionary (random) aspects of a problem. Recognizing the invariant features of a problem—those that are developmental and have established solutions—can save time and resources.

It allows us to apply known solutions or strategies without wasting time reinventing the wheel. However, just as critical is the ability to identify and adapt to the evolutionary aspects—the unpredictable, novel challenges that do not have predefined solutions.

The evo-devo perspective acknowledges the coexistence of predictability and randomness. It encourages a dual approach: applying established knowledge and solutions where applicable, while remaining adaptable to address the unpredictable, evolving aspects of a problem. This balanced approach allows for a more efficient and effective response to the multifaceted challenges presented by complex problems.

The 95/5 Rule

An intriguing concept emerges from all this known as the 95/5 rule. This rule posits that in any evo-devo process, approximately 95% of what occurs is subject to evolutionary processes and selection pressures, which are inherently unpredictable and random. In contrast, the remaining 5% is relatively stable and predictable, following developmental patterns.

This 95/5 rule suggests that a significant majority (95%) of the elements within a complex problem are evolutionary in nature, characterized by uncertainty, variability, and the potential for unforeseen changes. These elements are like the shifting sands of a desert, constantly reshaped by the winds of change and adaptation.

They represent the dynamic aspect of the problem, where traditional, fixed solutions are often inadequate. Instead, these elements require an adaptive, responsive approach, one that is flexible enough to evolve with the changing circumstances.

On the other hand, the 5% that is stable and predictable represents the developmental aspect of the problem. These are the foundational elements that remain constant, the bedrock amidst the shifting landscape. Identifying and understanding these stable components can provide a sense of direction and a framework for action. They are the parts of the problem where established strategies and solutions can be effectively applied, offering a semblance of control and predictability in an otherwise uncertain environment.

You've likely heard of the Pareto Principle, also known as the 80/20 rule. Although there are certainly situations where it makes more sense to provide that kind of cushion to the stable, predictable elements, in my experience 95/5 represents a more realistic ratio.

It may sound extreme, but the reality is that complex environments don't provide nearly as much stability or control as we want them to. Recognize where that thin slice of control actually exists, then allow evolutionary processes to unfold.