Simplicity
Complex problems don't always require complex solutions.
When dealing with complex systems in unpredictable environments, the strategies you leverage must emphasize a high degree of flexibility and adaptation. If you try to defeat the complexity you face with rigid, overcomplicated methods, you'll only dig your hole deeper. Stripping down your problem to its most simple elements is therefore the first step in the quest for a quality solution.
This is much easier said than done: the second law of thermodynamics reminds us that entropy increases over time, and our systems have a tendency to get more complex as a result. We pile up all kinds of complexity debt in order to handle new types of problems, which ironically makes us less able to solve future problems. How can you stay vigilant against this tidal wave of complexity?
The Midwit Meme
There's a meme that I find particularly helpful as a heuristic whenever you find yourself drowning in complexity: the midwit.
This is a bell curve of IQ scores, with the least intelligent simpleton on the left, the uber-intelligent Jedi on the right, and the average-intelligence midwit in the center.
It's used to illustrate how people overcomplicate things when there are clearer, simple answers available. The low IQ crowd picks the simplest strategies by default and ends up being correct—this is equivalent to Forrest Gump "just running" and ending up with a full-ride scholarship to a Division 1 college, a Medal of Honor, and worldwide fame. There wasn't any deep, complex thought processes going on, he genuinely felt like running and went with it.
The Forrest Gumps of the world run on mindless instinct alone and it often works out in miraculous ways. On the other hand, Jedi win because they're not only brilliant, but they have finely-tuned skills and bases of knowledge that allow them to pinpoint the most important features in game right away.
The midwit, however, is only of average intelligence and can't see through the complexity like a Jedi or mindlessly dive into the first attractor basin they find like a simpleton. Instead, the midwit sees the complexity and thinks the whole landscape is valuable somehow. They're inveterate information gatherers, while the Jedi aggressively filters and the simpleton is aggressively ignorant.
Take a look at this midwit meme about investing as an example:
Simpletons look at the historical returns of day trading versus the average returns of index funds, shrug, and buy an index fund—case closed. Jedis refuse to play games where they don't have a clear, sustainable edge, so they also buy index funds. Midwits don't take either into account (or don't give that information nearly enough weight) and instead plunge into the markets like chum for sharks.
Here's another one, this time about longevity:
The simpleton and Jedi once again converge on the same, simple solution that cuts straight to the heart of the matter while the midwit complicates it for no reason. For the vast majority of people, it's enough to get the basics right on a regular basis. Further complication is not necessary, at least not until someone is incredibly advanced in their fitness level.
No Silver Bullets
To be clear: the midwit meme is, in many cases, just a meme. It does not represent the solution to all complex problems. You can absolutely simplify yourself into incorrect (sometimes wildly incorrect) answers. Take this midwit meme about pi as an example:
Pi is clearly not just 3, it's much more than that, and there's no way to simplify your way out of it. There are plenty of complex problems just like this, where simplification leads you straight into a minefield. Life isn't that black and white. Jedis and simpletons are still people who make mistakes (sometimes big ones), often because they're shooting straight from the hip with simple solutions.
The Midwit Method
Midwits are midwits mostly because they spend too much time absorbing information and not enough time getting feedback from the real world. Although the meme focuses on pure IQ, the reality is that the heuristics used by both the simpleton and Jedi are honed by real-world experience more than anything else.
Being a midwit is akin to memorizing a book about Beijing and then telling everyone you're a Beijing expert without ever going there. They're the kinds of people who are terrified of real contact with the world, so they spend all their time accumulating knowledge without ever testing anything.
To avoid this, utilize what I call The Midwit Method: take a breath, delete as much complexity as you can from the problem, and then—this is the most important part—do something to test your knowledge. You can run an experiment, have a conversation with an expert, whatever. Just make sure there's some sort of genuine feedback mechanism involved. You'll discover what's true and what isn't much faster than if you spent all your time memorizing facts or posting on Reddit.
It's often as simple as stepping back and asking yourself, "Am I the midwit here?" It takes a certain degree of self-awareness and humility, but if you never ask that question there's a high chance you'll end up in the midwit attractor basin at some point.
Even though there are plenty of situations where the MM won't get you straight to the answer, in the vast majority of cases it will get you closer to a sustainable solution. It's amazing what kind of clarity you can get when you stop trying to be the smartest person in the room and instead focus on what real-world actions can show you.
Examples
Competitive Strategy
Imagine you're interested in launching a new product or service into a competitive market. The simpleton approach would be to find what makes your product genuinely different and hammer that point home. No need for convoluted marketing jargon or over-the-top advertising campaigns. Just clear, straightforward communication about what sets your product apart.
The Jedi, even with their deeper understanding of market dynamics and consumer psychology, would likely do something similar. Identify the unique selling proposition, make sure it resonates with the target audience, and keep the message clear and focused. They're more likely to execute it in a slicker way, but the result is roughly the same as the simpleton's.
The midwit would get tangled in endless market research, over-analyze consumer trends, and probably end up with a campaign so cluttered with buzzwords and niche appeals that it loses its impact. This is the typical wantrepreneur, who spends all day reading books, posting on social media and watching motivational videos instead of taking action on a regular basis.
Dealing with a Company Crisis
Let's say your company hits a crisis point—maybe a PR disaster or a significant drop in sales. The simpleton would get straight to the heart of the problem. If it's a product issue, fix it. If it's a PR mess, address it. No beating around the bush, no elaborate PR stunts. Just straightforward problem-solving.
The Jedi, despite their ability to strategize and analyze various outcomes, would take a similar approach. Assess the situation, develop a clear, direct response, and implement it without unnecessary complications.
The midwit is bound to get lost in damage control mode, hiring expensive consultants, issuing convoluted press statements, and taking actions that look good on paper but don't effectively address the core issue. Their obsession with complexity only digs them deeper into the hole, and they keep on trying to dig their way out.
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